Probability & Vagueness

The University of Tokyo 20th - 22nd March 2013


The aim of the conference is to bring together researchers who work on philosophical topics in probability theory and the theory of vagueness. It will address topics as diverse as the nature of vagueness in language and thought, vague probabilities, or applications of probability theory to vagueness.


The conference is a special event of the Tokyo Forum for Analytic Philosophy and will be hosted by the Department of Philosophy on the Hongo Campus of the University of Tokyo.

It is organised by Richard Dietz and Masaki Ichinose.

Conference talks will be on March 20 and March 21. There is no conference fee!

For conference dinners (March 20 and 21), please register by March 15.


Eleonora Cresto (University of Buenos Aires)

Lost in Translation: Unknowable Propositions in Probabilistic Frameworks  |  PDF Abstract

Eleonora Cresto is Philosophy Professor and Senior Researcher at CONICET, Instituto de Filosofía, University of Buenos Aires. Her interest lies in both formal and mainstream epistemology, as well as in philosophy of science, decision theory, and philosophy of logic.

Richard Dietz (University of Tokyo)

PDF Abstract  |  The Possibility of Vagueness

Richard Dietz is a Lecturer in Philosophy at the University of Tokyo. His main interests are in the philosophy of language, formal epistemology and philosophical logic.


Igor Douven (University of Groningen)

PDF Abstract  |  Vindicating Edgington's Verities

Igor Douven holds the Chair in Formal Epistemology in the Faculty of Philosophy of the University of Groningen. His work is mainly in the area of formal epistemology, with special interests in conditionals, conceptual spaces, and formal social epistemology.

Alan HÁjek (Australian National University)

PDF Abstract  |  Unexpected Expectations

A professor of Philosophy at Australian National University, Alan Hájek's research interests include the philosophical foundations of probability and decision theory, epistemology, the philosophy of science, metaphysics, and the philosophy of religion.


Masaki Ichinose (University of Tokyo)

Descriptivity, Normativity, and Probability  |  PDF Abstract

Masaki Ichinose is Professor of Philosophy at the Graduate School of Humanities and Sociology, University of Tokyo. He is also an Honorary Fellow of the University of Oxford.

Rosanna Keefe (University of Sheffield)

Prefaces, Sorites and Obligations  |  PDF Abstract

Rosanna Keefe of University of Sheffield defends a supervaluationist theory of vagueness. Her main philosophical interests lie within the philosophy of logic and language and metaphysics. Her Theories of Vagueness was published by Cambridge University Press in 2000.


Dan Lassiter (Stanford University)

Bayesian pragmatics and the interpretation of scalar adjectives
PDF Abstract

Dan Lassiter's research combines formal tools and experimental methods from linguistics, psychology, philosophy, and computer science to work toward a unified theory of uncertainty in the cognitive science of meaning, communication, and reasoning.

Aidan Lyon (University of Maryland)

PDF Abstract  |  Overconfidence for Vague Confidence

Aidan Lyon is Assistant Professor of Philosophy at the University of Maryland, College Park. His areas of philosophy research are mainly in the Philosophies of Science, Probability, Mathematics, Formal Epistemology, Philosophy of Physics and Philosophy of Biology.


Peter Pagin (Stockholm University)

PDF Abstract  |  Gaps and Higher Order Vagueness

Peter Pagin's focus is on philosophy of language, and within that sphere has primarily taken an interest in the foundations of semantic theories and semantic concepts. Most recently he has worked on the principle of compositionality for natural language.

Wlodek Rabinowicz (Lund University)

Incommensurability and Vagueness - From Values to Probabilities
PDF Abstract

Wlodek Rabinowicz is a philosopher elaborating ethics, normativity, decision theory and utilitarianism. At present he is working as professor of practical philosophy at Lund University. He also previously acted as editor-in-chief of philosophy journal Theoria.


Nick J.J. Smith (University of Sydney)

Credences: Where Uncertainty and Vagueness Cross Paths
 |  PDF Abstract

Nick Smith is an Associate Professor of Philosophy at the University of Sydney. He is author of Vagueness and Degrees of Truth published by Oxford University Press in 2008 and Logic: The Laws of Truth published by Princeton University Press in 2012.



March 20 (Wed)   -   IIRC 3F Conference Room

Time Speaker Title
10:30 - 11:30 Masaki Ichinose Descriptivity, Normativity, and Probability
12:50 - 13:50
14:00 - 15:00
Rosanna Keefe
Peter Pagin
Prefaces, Sorites and Obligations
Gaps and Higher Order Vagueness
15:20 - 16:20
16:30 - 18:00
Eleonora Cresto
Wlodek Rabinowicz (Keynote Speaker)
Lost in Translation
Incommensurability and Vagueness
18:30 DINNER

Dinner will be from 18:30 at Lever son Verre

March 21 (Thu)   -   IIRC 3F Seminar Room

Time Speaker Title
9:00 - 9:30 TEA & COFFEE
9:30 - 10:30
10:40 - 11:40
Richard Dietz
Dan Lassiter
The Possibility of Vagueness
Bayesian pragmatics and scalar adjectives
12:50 - 13:50
14:00 - 15:00
Igor Douven
Aidan Lyon
Vindicating Edgington's Verities
Overconfidence for Vague Confidence
15:20 - 16:20
16:30 - 18:00
Nick J.J. Smith
Alan Hájek (Keynote Speaker)
Unexpected Expectations
18:30 DINNER

Dinner will be from 18:30 at the Faculty Club

March 22 (Fri)   -   Follow Up Event

In continuation of the conference, there will be a special Hongo Metaphysics Club on probability and vagueness on March 22 at 5pm, with Dr Hiroshi Ohtani (Musashino University) and Dr Satoru Suzuki (University of Tokyo). For further information about the program, please watch for updates on:


The conference will take place at the Ito International Research Center (IIRC), which is located at Hongo Campus, University of Tokyo.

The building is marked on this google map:

For information on how to get to Hongo Campus, please refer to this PDF For bus/walking routes from nearest stations, please see this PDF map, with IIRC being building no. 30


For queries or for registration for the conference dinners, please email